Pipeline Risk Analysis and Modeling: Part 1 | Audubon Companies
Pipeline Risk Analysis and Modeling: Part 1 | Audubon Companies
Industry
Pipelines + Terminals
Author
Allison Humphries Avatar
Content Creator Audubon

Pipeline Risk Analysis and Modeling: Part 1

The pipeline remains one of the safest transportation methods for oil and gas in the U.S., but like any technology, it has its risks.

One way to mitigate those risks is through regulation. Today’s pipeline integrity management regulations, manifesting in the U.S. as 49 CFR Parts 192 and 195, dictate an active approach to assessing the risks for and consequences of an accidental release of liquids or gases from a pipeline. The development and modeling of a risk analysis plan — another way to mitigate risk — represents an important process towards that end, requiring practical approaches to and new innovations in risk assessment.

Risk analysis and modeling essentially involves the use of qualitative and/or quantitative techniques to probabilistically determine the chance of a risk event and its impact. In a June 2015 article for World Pipelines, Wright et al. broke down what must get answered with such a model (PDF): “what can go wrong,” “how likely is it to happen,” and “what are the consequences if it does happen?” What could go wrong? In the world of pipelines, corrosion can lead to ruptured pipelines and oil spills; this is commonly known in the industry. The difficult part, of course, is assessing how likely corrosion could occur. This is where risk modeling comes into play.

Risk modeling is an important pipeline integrity management service, one that when delivered well extends a pipeline’s service life, improves efficiency, and contributes positively to environmental and personal safety. Today, risk managers have several options for risk modeling techniques. At the simple end of the spectrum is the matrix model, which ranks a pipeline’s potential risks on a simple scale, based on the likelihood of the events occurring and the likely consequences. The risks are plotted on a grid, and those that have a high perceived likelihood of occurring as well as significant perceived consequences get prioritized higher. At the other end of the difficulty scale is probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which involves a complicated event and fault tree where probabilities get assigned to all the branches. This type of modeling usually involves databases, computer applications, and trained staff. While costly, PRA can be quite effective.

In the second part of this article, we’ll take a look at what the popular middle-ground solution is of risk modeling techniques. We’ll also look at how pipeline risk models are evolving today.

Allison Humphries Avatar

Related services we offer

On-Site Water Treatment-Img-AFSnde-For web
Ensure compliance and quick turnaround with mobile, modular systems.
Vendor Surveillance | Services | Audubon
Increase transparency and effectively monitor third parties across your supply chain.
Land + Right-of-Way | Services | Audubon
Integrate local expertise and specialized knowledge for acquisitions and permitting.
Construction Management | Services | Audubon
Improve productivity and efficiency while reducing downtime and costs.
Asset Integrity+ Corrosion | Services | Audubon
Safely and reliably extend productive life with customized solutions that detect damage and combat corrosion.
Inspection | Services | Audubon
Ensure safety, quality, compliance, and reliable asset performance.
GIS + Data Management | Services | Audubon
Leverage best-in-class tools and platforms for actionable insights on your assets.
Surveying + Mapping | Services | Audubon
Get the quickest, most accurate data with the latest technologies.
Vapor Recovery | Services | Audubon
Achieve destruction efficiency, regulatory compliance, and sustainable energy at once.
Industrial Control Panel Fabrication | Services | Audubon
Leverage significant EPC experience for specialized control panel design and delivery.
Regen-Filter-Skid_edited
Improve time and cost efficiencies with Opero Energy's turnkey processing equipment and systems.
Disaster Recovery + Restoration | Services | Audubon
Recover quickly from catastrophic events with our multidisciplinary capabilities and technical field expertise.
Crane + Heavy Lift | Services | Audubon
Apply state-of-the-art machines, thorough project planning, and certified technicians at your site.
Carbon Capture | Services | Audubon
Meet your success metrics for decarbonization without sacrificing profits.
Process Safety Management + Risk Management | Audubon
Proactively assess your risk and enhance operational safety.
In-Plant Engineering | Services | Audubon
Bolster your team with the right personnel to meet your objectives.
Environmental Consulting + Regulatory Services | Audubon
Meet complex requirements, mitigate risk, and maximize project economics.
Decommissioning | Services | Audubon
Unlock the hidden value of end-of-life assetss.
Commissioning and Start-Up | O&M Capabilities | Audubon
Boost uptime, safety, and performance from final construction to operation and handover.
Optimization + Debottlenecking | Services | Audubon
Enhance, extend, and maximize the productivity of brownfield assets for optimal ROI.
Turnaround Management | Services | Audubon
Accelerate project timelines, improve plant performance, and circumvent issues before they affect operations.
Nondestructive Evaluation | Services | Audubon
Minimize risk without sacrificing uptime.
Material Verification | Services | Audubon
Apply a proven, proprietary process to get TVC records for PHMSA compliance.
Industrial Control Systems | Services | Audubon
Get custom, cutting-edge automation for reliability and performance.
SCADA Systems | Automation and Control | Capabilities | Audubon
Maximize efficiency and safeguard security across your site.
Safety Instrumented Systems | Services | Audubon
Increase asset protection and productivity while maintaining functional safety standards.
Operational Technology + Cybersecurity | Services | Audubon
Fortify your infrastructure, optimize network performance, and minimize cyber risk.
Detailed Engineering + Design | Services | Audubon
Maximize project value with leading technologies and an agile, dedicated team.
9d0295eb325f826726d41ddf68193976 (1) (1)
Better define work scope, decrease uncertainty, and meet strategic objectives.
Owner's Engineering | Services | Audubon
Get a trusted partner to achieve your project goals safely and efficiently.
Construction | Services | Audubon
Execute with the highest levels of quality and safety.

Related news + insights

Pipeline Safety | PHMSA Issues New Rules | Audubon
Mar. 16, 2020|
Blog|
Are You Ready? PHMSA Issues New Rules to Overhaul Pipeline Safety – Part 2
Pipeline Safety | PHMSA Issues New Rules | Audubon
Feb. 11, 2020|
Blog|
Are You Ready? PHMSA Issues New Rules to Overhaul Pipeline Safety – Part 1
Depth of cover surveys | Audubon
Jan. 13, 2018|
Blog|
How Do Depth-Of-Cover Surveys Protect Pipelines?